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According to the idea of Hawking Radiation, due to quantum fluctuations, a photon that happens to be at the event horizon of a black hole may spontaneously split into a particle and an antiparticle, at which point the particle flies away from the black hole and the antiparticle flies into it. After the antiparticle annihilates some mass inside the black hole, it appears as if the black hole has emitted a particle, and over time, if there is insufficient mass outside to attract, the black hole will slowly "evaporate".
My question is: Isn't it just as likely that the particle will go in and the antiparticle will come out, thereby producing a net result of no change in the black hole's mass? So, what gives the first scenario an edge over the second?
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