I hadn't heard of argumentation ethics, so I wiki'd it:

"Argumentation ethics, is an a priori, value-free praxeological argument for deontological libertarian ethics"

Holy syllable density batman...

Basically it says that if you didn't support the libertarian argument against aggression, you wouldn't be arguing to resolve the problem instead of just beating the other person up, and that by engaging in an argument against the non-aggression principle, you are engaging in a performative contradiction. *I* think the hole in that argument is pretty obvious, but apparently other people don't.


This is also exactly why I'm a minarchist and not an anarcho-capitalist.

I'd heard of similar arguments around the whole "is logic valid" type of argument (to refute logic, you must use logic, thus self-defeat).

Being a general nihilist, I think that the best form of government is whatever I think the best form of government is.

Profound and convincing, I know

Current polls have Obama winning Florida by ~1% so far.

If he wins Florida, he's virtually guaranteed the victory. We'll wait and see...

The returns here and here are giving Romney a 0.4% lead in Florida. But if he loses Florida it's basically game over (he would then need all 8 other swing states)

[edit]
Scratch that. Obama is up in FL by a couple %.

Well, that's with only a few percent of votes counted (something like 7% counted so far) -- many of the very telling data points aren't in yet, so it's hard to tell until then. Two big barometers of the election are going to be Fairfax and Loudon counties in Northern Virginia, apparently.

EDIT

For example, apparently Romney is given a definite win on South Carolina, and so far he only has 40% of the counted vote there. Again, it all depends on a certain few counties, since many counted first never swing one way or another.

Florida is probably the only one that matters. Florida is claiming 40% returns at this point, and a 3% lead for Obama.

@Ashbad You can actually get a very very very highly accurate statistical analysis from a small sample size.

That being said, that doesn't really hold here because ballots come in big chunks, not random data (and are thus biased). So we will indeed have to wait a bit longer to see. CNN still showing Obama leading in Florida.

It depends entirely on which counties have returned so far. Until a certain few counties finish counting and report, it's anyone's state.

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results - This is interesting

Nothing counts until about 2 more hours, then things shall be more definitive. But I see this happening:

1. Romney and Obama get close. REALLY close

2. Al gore and Bush close, I'm talking

3. Weeks and weeks we won't know what happens.

4. Finally obama wins but by just a tiny bit, with Romney losing due to the 2 or more percent of the vote that third parties will get. Thus ensuring that the stated third party will get all the perks of the republicrats next election cycle, destroying the 2 party system for good.

I've taken statistics, I'm very aware of such facts.

But it's also true that it matters WHERE the results are from. Depending on which counties turn out specific affiliations, it can easily go Romney +5 in the final 20% of the counting process.

Lead's closing in Florida. Romney's within 50,000 votes or so again, and only 43% returns.

What site are you watching? I'm looking at the first one I saw on Google ( http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/ ) and it's only showing a 12% or so count so far. I'd love to watch the most up-to-date version.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president is ahead on reporting, but isn't including 3rd parties.

Thanks! The third-party vote doesn't matter as much to me personally, though I'm surprised CNN isn't tracking it.

EDIT

As I predicted, it's already flip-flopped to a gain for Romney in Florida. I think he'll win it, but it'll be a flip-floppy night, with an end with Romney in a 2% lead or so.

It's back to Obama in Florida, but I think Ashbad is right and it will be full of flip flopping.

Ohio seems pretty probama so far.

From what I've been seeing, it's already flipped between the two at least 10 times in the last 20 minutes I've checked it.

Virginia looks strongly Romneyish, and Ohio looks strongly Obamaish, but both are <30% reporting.

I predict a somewhat-decisive Romney win in Virginia, but I won't dare make a prediction about Ohio; I want Romney to win it, but I really have no idea how it'll end up based on what's in so far. Even Virginia can go either way, but I suspect it'll go Red as it generally does in against/for incumbents.

There's a couple of other states reporting in, but all of them are static with what was expected so far, so (like what I assume to be normal), only the battlegrounds are really going to be watched closely.